Everything you need to know about Bracket — mechanics, scoring, jackpot, and fees.
Every day at 00:00 UTC, a new BTC price prediction market opens. Five price brackets — called pools — are generated based on BTC's recent volatility. You pick the pool you think BTC will land in when the market closes at 23:00 UTC.
At midnight UTC, Chainlink oracle reads the BTC/USD price on-chain. If your pool wins, you receive a share of the prize pool proportional to your stake — the more you staked, the larger your share. If no one wins (or only one pool has bets), everyone gets a full refund.
Choose one of 5 BTC price ranges. Each pool has an estimated payout multiplier shown in real-time.
Minimum bet is 5 USDC. No maximum unless total pool exceeds 10,000 USDC — then max is 5% of pool.
After settlement, winners claim their payout directly from the smart contract.
Pool ranges are dynamically calculated each day using BTC's 7-day and 30-day realized volatility plus the average true range (ATR). The goal is a 10-20-30-20-10% probability distribution — Pool C is the most likely outcome, Pool A and E are the long shots.
Extreme Bear
BTC far below expected range
Up to 11x
~10% probability
Bearish
BTC slightly below mid
Up to 5x
~20% probability
Neutral
BTC within expected range
Up to 3x
~30% probability
Bullish
BTC slightly above mid
Up to 5x
~20% probability
Extreme Bull
BTC far above expected range
Up to 11x
~10% probability
* Multipliers are estimated. Final payout depends on total stakes at close.
Bracket uses a parimutuel system. There is no house, no AMM, no liquidity provider on the other side of your bet. You're playing against other participants — winners take the losers' stakes.
This is fundamentally different from prediction markets that use AMMs (like Polymarket's CLOB or Augur's liquidity pools). In those systems, prices are quoted by market makers who need to be compensated for risk. In Bracket, there are no market makers. The "price" of a pool is purely determined by how much everyone has staked into it.
Net Pool = Total Stakes × (1 - 5% fee)
Your Payout = Net Pool × (Your Stake / Winning Pool Total)
What this means in practice: if 80% of all stakes go into Pool C and you're in Pool A — your effective odds are much higher. The crowd is your counterparty. Bet against them and win, and they fund your payout.
No house edge on outcomes
The protocol takes 5% upfront. After that, every dollar goes to winners. The house doesn't bet against you.
No liquidity needed
There's no AMM to seed, no order book to maintain. Any amount of volume works — the pool self-balances.
Odds are crowd-driven
Pool C always has the most bets (safe play). Pool A and E are contrarian. Your multiplier reflects actual crowd sentiment, not a market maker's model.
Refund Condition
If fewer than 2 pools receive bets — all bets are refunded in full. No fee is taken. A parimutuel market needs at least two competing pools to function fairly.
PR Score is your skill rating, calculated after every settlement based on 4 components. Max theoretical score is 3,000+.
Accuracy
Win Rate × 1200. Straightforward — higher win rate, higher score.
Difficulty / Surprise Factor
Winning in a low-participation pool gives more points. Win Pool A when only 5% of bets go there = 20× surprise factor. Win Pool C with 40% ofbets = 2.5× factor. Losing gives 0.
Consistency
Based on total predictions made — maxes out at 100 predictions. Like Glicko: more data = more valid score. Prevents new users from topping leaderboard on a lucky streak.
Contrarian Success
Win rate specifically in Pool A and E. Consistently winning in extreme pools gives a dedicated bonus on top of the difficulty score.
Key insight
A player who always bets Pool C and wins 60% of the time can be outranked by someone who bets Pool A/E, wins 40% of the time, but consistently picks low-participation pools. Skill + courage beats pure win rate.
XP is separate from PR Score — it tracks activity and milestones.
Any prediction (win or lose)
+10 XPWinning a market
+50 XPWinning in Pool A or E
+30 XP bonusWinning in pool < 20% participation
+20 XP bonusWin streak 3+
+5 XP per streak (max +50)Sharpshooter
High win rate, consistent predictions. Trusts the data.
Contrarian
Loves Pool A and E. Bets against the crowd and sometimes wins big.
Consensus
Always bets with the crowd. Safe plays, lower multipliers.
Degen
Random picks, high variance. Somehow still here.
A total of 5% protocol fee is deducted from the prize pool at settlement. Only applies on normal settlement — refunds are fee-free.
2.5%
Dev Treasury
Funds protocol maintenance, infrastructure, and ecosystem growth.
2.5%
Jackpot Treasury
Accumulated each market. Distributed monthly to eligible users.
Every month, 2.5% of all market fees accumulate into a jackpot pool. On the 1st of each month at 12:00 UTC, the jackpot is distributed across 4 categories.
Eligibility: account at least 30 days old + at least 20 settled predictions this season.
Community Draw
Random draw from all eligible users. Every qualifying participant has an equal chance.
Skill Jackpot
Top 3 PR Score holders this season. Random draw among the top 3.
Activity Jackpot
User with the longest active prediction streak this season.
Contrarian Jackpot
Highest win rate in Pool A or E, minimum 10 contrarian predictions.
Bracket runs on Base (Ethereum L2). All bets, settlements, and payouts happen via a smart contract. Price settlement uses Chainlink BTC/USD oracle.
Settlement is permissionless — anyone can trigger it after market close. If our backend fails, you or anyone can settle the market manually via the contract.
USDC (Base Mainnet)
0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913
Chainlink BTC/USD (Base)
0x64c911996D3c6aC71f9b455B1E8E7266BcbD848F
New market opens every day at midnight UTC.
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